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Probabilities Index


Our last piece of strategic advice is a list of basic probabilities that you should know. The more you play, the more these will come in handy, so it’s best to familiarize yourself with them:

Probability of hitting a flush draw (both turn and river, needing one card to hit): 35%

Probability of hitting an open-ended straight draw (i.e. four straight cards; need one on either end to hit on turn or river): 31.5%

Probability of hitting a gutshot draw (inside straight draw) on turn or river: 16.5%

Probability of being dealt a pocket pair: 5.88%

Probability of being dealt suited cards: 23.5%

Probability of hitting three of a kind or quads at the flop, when you hold a pocket pair: 11.8%

Probability you’ll make a pair at the flop, holding two unpaired cards in the hole: 32.4%

Probability of being dealt A-A: 0.45%

Probability of no one holding an ace, by number of players, assuming you don’t have an ace, by number of total players. Note: this can be used for any card (because the chances of you being dealt an ace or a king is exactly the same):

2: 84.5%
3: 70.9%
4: 59%
5: 48.6%
6: 39.7%
7: 32.1%
8: 25.6%
9: 20.1%
10: 15.6%

Probability someone else does not have an ace, assuming you do have an ace, by total number of players:

2: 88.2%
3: 77.5%
4: 67.6%
5: 58.6%
6: 50.4%
7: 43%
8: 36.4%
9: 30.5%
10: 25.3%

 

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